Scenario Simulator

Scenario Parameters

Define the shock regime — the engine generates 100 price paths from the shock-adjusted start price around the base WTI of $82.40.

Shock type

Intensity

45%
MildSevere

Duration

30 days
7d90d

Price Trajectories

50 sampled paths · red line = ensemble median

Geopolitical · 45% · 30d
Generating ensemble…

Confidence Fan

10–90% and 25–75% percentile bands around the median

$95.38/bbl · 100 paths · GBM + shock regime